The U.S. Air Force faces mounting risks in its effort to replace the Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile with the new Sentinel system, and has yet to create a risk management plan to guide the transition, the Government Accountability Office said in a report published Wednesday.
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Transition Strategy Lacks Risk Management
GAO said the Air Force has created an overarching transition strategy and a site-specific plan for F.E. Warren Air Force Base in Wyoming, the first installation slated to convert to Sentinel; however, it has not developed a transition risk management plan, which is a leading project planning practice. Such a plan would help the service systematically identify, assess and respond to the wide range of risks associated with moving from Minuteman III to Sentinel, the government watchdog noted.
The Sentinel program, originally set to begin transition work in fiscal year 2025, is currently being restructured by the Department of Defense. GAO warned that without a detailed risk management plan, the Air Force is not well-positioned for a successful transition.
Challenges in Testing and Personnel Preparation
The watchdog also found gaps in preparations for operators, maintainers and security forces for the transition. While the Air Force has begun some training initiatives, it has not established a schedule for building a Sentinel test facility, which will be critical to validating new policies and instructions. The absence of a construction timeline could complicate efforts to prepare the force for concurrent operations of both missile systems, GAO said.
Prolonged Reliance on Minuteman III
Delays in Sentinel development mean the Air Force may need to operate Minuteman III through 2050, according to officials interviewed by GAO. Continued reliance on the Cold War-era system creates sustainment challenges, such as parts availability. GAO stressed that these risks must be specifically addressed in a transition risk management plan to ensure strategic deterrence requirements are met.
GAO made six recommendations to the Air Force:
- Developing a comprehensive transition risk management plan with a risk register and risk report.
- Establishing a sequenced schedule for completion of the Sentinel test facility.
- Assessing personnel needs, including potential Reserve Component support.
- Creating a post-2030 Minuteman III operational test launch plan aligned with Sentinel fielding.
- Explicitly addressing Minuteman III sustainment risks.
- Analyzing personnel and materiel implications if intercontinental missiles are re-MIRVed or modified to once again carry multiple warheads.
The Department of Defense concurred with all six recommendations.
Background on the Sentinel Study
The Minuteman III, originally intended to serve for 10 years, has been in operation for over five decades and includes more than 600 facilities across five states. Congress directed GAO to review Air Force transition planning as part of the fiscal 2024 National Defense Authorization Act.
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