Commercial satellite data indicate that the number of Ukrainian refugees fleeing to Russia may have been exaggerated by the Russian government to justify its invasion of Ukraine, the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency said Thursday.
The study was conducted by NGA in partnership with the University of Texas in Austin’s Global Disinformation Lab as part of the Tearline open-source intelligence project.
Russian state media have been reporting that “large flows of refugees” were coming from Ukraine to the Rostov region in southwest Russia. The Border Service of the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation also stated that more than 16,000 civilians crossed that border every day since the war began. However, GEOINT images showed low counts of civilian vehicles and lack of traffic congestion at the Rostov border.
Researchers found more accurate figures in statistics published by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, which showed an increase in refugee and vehicle crossing in the Ukraine-Poland border post-invasion. According to UNHCR, 42,273 refugees came to Poland via the Korczowa-Krakowiec border on March 18. Thirteen images showed that the average number of cars and trucks increased from 31 and 60 to 95 and 110, respectively, when the war erupted.
The U.S. State Department asserts that the disinformation is part of Russia’s propaganda to boost public support for its attack on Ukraine. The department funded the Conflict Observatory program to gather and expose crimes related to the Ukraine war, and NGA contributes to the initiative by providing unclassified imagery.
