Federal debt is projected to rise from 2025 through 2035 due to revenue growth being outpaced by expenses in Social Security and Medicare as well as interest payments, according to Phillip Swagel, director of the Congressional Budget Office.
The Budget and Economic Outlook
Swagel made the remarks during a press briefing on Friday, citing highlights from The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2025 to 2035, which had just been released. The outlook report is issued regularly by the CBO to present baseline projections of the federal budget and the economy through the current year and the next decade provided prevailing tax and spending laws remain unchanged.
Debt Increase
Regarding debt, Swagel went on to report that it hit 98 percent of gross domestic product as of the end of 2024 and is expected by 2029 to clear 106 percent of GDP, currently the record high. By 2035, debt is projected to be 118 percent of GDP.
GDP Growth
Real GDP growth itself is projected to slow down from 2.3 percent in 2024 to 1.9 percent in 2025. From 2026 through 2035, GDP is expected to average out at 1.8 percent.
Budget Deficit
The CBO official also reported that the budget deficit is expected to hit $2.7 trillion by 2035, up from the $1.9 trillion projected for 2025. It was noted, however, that the cumulative deficit over that 10-year period is lower by about $1 trillion compared to the projection CBO made in June 2024.
