- SWE 2040 is the first of USSPACECOM’s three-part Space Trilogy
- It maps nine forces expected to shape space warfighting by 2040
- The document urges making contested space the training norm
U.S. Space Command has published the Space Warfighting Environment 2040, a framework laying out the trends and conditions the Joint Force expects to face in space by 2040 and beyond. The command released the document Monday.
SWE 2040 is the first installment of what USSPACECOM calls its Space Trilogy. The document states plainly that it is not a prediction, describing itself instead as a framework for adapting to uncertainty.
Gen. Stephen Whiting, USSPACECOM commander and a Wash100 Award winner, said sustaining the command’s position in a contested domain requires strengthening both capability and capacity.
Strategies for an increasingly contested space domain will be discussed at the Potomac Officers Club’s 2026 Air and Space Summit on July 30. The event will bring together senior government leaders, military officials and industry executives to explore space technologies, artificial intelligence, advanced networks and other priorities shaping U.S. air and space capabilities. Register now.
What Are the Three Documents in the Space Trilogy?
A Space Futures Series will follow SWE 2040, providing issue-driven analysis of emerging problems. A Space Warfighting Concept will come next, addressing how the Joint Force and U.S. Space Command fight and win in space.
U.S. Space Command also placed SWE 2040 against two Space Force publications. The Future Operating Environment 2040 defines the environment and the Objective Force 2040 defines the force, while SWE 2040 addresses how the Joint Force operates within them.
Chief of Space Operations Gen. Chance Saltzman, a Wash100 Award recipient, introduced the two Space Force documents at the 41st Space Symposium in April.
What Trends Does SWE 2040 Expect to Define Space Warfighting?
The document lists nine forces it expects to shape the warfighter’s reality by 2040:
- Proliferated dual-use spacecraft absorb attacks and regenerate.
- Advanced materials redefine stealth and deception.
- Direct-to-device connectivity keeps tactical units linked without ground infrastructure.
- Optical and laser links move data quietly.
- AI-enabled networks reroute and repair themselves faster than adversaries can disrupt them.
- Distributed, mobile ground nodes remove single points of failure.
- In-space servicing and maneuver turn orbit into a dynamic network.
- Quantum advances reshape trust, timing and secure communication.
- Debris, traffic management and behavioral norms shape freedom of action.
SWE 2040 organizes these around the effect chain, covering ground-to-space, space-to-space and space-to-ground pathways. The document argues that a space-enabled effect has no value until it completes the chain, and that adversaries will contest every segment of that chain.
How Does SWE 2040 Assess Competitors?
China competes through mass, spanning production, launch, deployment and the massing of effects. USSPACECOM said China has more than doubled its annual launch rate over the past decade and organizes its state-owned space contractors for military-civil fusion.
Russia takes a different path. The command described a strategy built on jamming, spoofing, cyber intrusion and information manipulation, aimed at slowing decisions rather than matching U.S. capability.
In 2025, Iran struck the Modernized Enterprise Terminal radome at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, targeting infrastructure supporting U.S. satellite communications rather than the installation broadly. During Operation Epic Fury, Iranian forces contested the electromagnetic spectrum while striking radar systems, communication nodes and missile warning architecture. USSPACECOM said Iran drew on commercially sourced satellite imagery, including imagery from Chinese commercial entities, to improve targeting.
North Korea concentrates on cyber despite its limited digital infrastructure, the document said.
What Does SWE 2040 Ask of Industry and the Acquisition System?
The document urges the Joint Force to stop treating commercial and academic organizations as vendors that deliver products at the end of a contract. It calls them partners in competition and co-investors in national power.
USSPACECOM projected the global space economy will reach $1.8 trillion by 2035. Commercial spacecraft will form a critical part of the effect chain by 2040, contributing to intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance; targeting support; and communications resilience.
That access runs both directions. The command warned that space-as-a-service models are available to anyone who can pay, giving competitors a route to offset U.S. advantage.
On acquisition, SWE 2040 calls for a shift toward speed, iteration, resilience and effects-based design. The document acknowledged that reforms are already underway and said the remaining challenge is executing them on timelines that reach the warfighter.
What Must the Joint Force Change?
SWE 2040 calls for treating contested space as the training baseline rather than an exceptional case. Warfighters need to rehearse operating when links are jammed, positioning and timing are degraded, and networks fracture.
The document identifies maneuver warfare within the space domain as a central requirement. That means repositioning capability, recovering from disruption and sustaining effects without forcing operational pauses on the Joint Force.
Ground stations, gateways, satellites and command frameworks should be designed to integrate allied and commercial partners from the start, rather than accommodating them once systems are fielded. The command also called for realigning authorities, classification practices and information-sharing pathways, arguing that safeguards designed to protect advantage can now slow it.
